Fire OblationTier 1
at 暖角落 GA RDO 店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.5% | +8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feu Awakening | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crumbling Reign | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Checkmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ionized Asceticism | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |